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I was, however, more interested initially in the response to
Marilyn's answer which I do disagree with. As Mark Shapiro points
out, 97.3% (I get 97.0% while Richard gets 97.5%) would indeed be
called "a sure thing" in many situations including, I dare say,
this one. (On the other hand, a 97% survival rate after taking
two aspirin for a headache might be thought of in distinctly
different terms.) In any event I see no reason to think that the
reader engaged in an "erroneous extrapolation" of the 23 person
result which might be expected to lead some to believe that
*absolute* (not virtual) certainty occurs with 46 (not 50) people.