Chronology Current Month Current Thread Current Date
[Year List] [Month List (current year)] [Date Index] [Thread Index] [Thread Prev] [Thread Next] [Date Prev] [Date Next]

Re: Marilyn, again



Doug Craigen wrote:

On Mon, 4 Aug 1997, John Mallinckrodt wrote:

Marilyn: Take 2

As Marilyn and the rest of us all know, it takes only 23 randomly
chosen people to have a greater than 50% chance that at least two
will have the same birthday. Yesterday Marilyn published a letter
from a reader who claimed that, for a group of 50 people, the
result becomes "virtually certain." She took the reader to task
for falling victim to a "persistent, erroneous extrapolation" of
the preceding fact.

So, here we go again. You can calculate the probability yourself.
What do you think of Marilyn's answer?


Most of these probability calculations are based on the assumption that
there is an equal likelyhood of birth occuring on any given day. This
is not the case.

--
Jerry Hester Email: jhester@mtu.edu
Dept. of Physics Phone: (906) 487-2273
Michigan Technological University Fax: (906) 487-2933
1400 Townsend Drive
Houghton, Michigan 49931-1295