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On Mon, 4 Aug 1997, John Mallinckrodt wrote:
Marilyn: Take 2
As Marilyn and the rest of us all know, it takes only 23 randomly
chosen people to have a greater than 50% chance that at least two
will have the same birthday. Yesterday Marilyn published a letter
from a reader who claimed that, for a group of 50 people, the
result becomes "virtually certain." She took the reader to task
for falling victim to a "persistent, erroneous extrapolation" of
the preceding fact.
So, here we go again. You can calculate the probability yourself.
What do you think of Marilyn's answer?