Down with the lottery!! (was: 2 kid problem)

[John Mallinckrodt <ajmallinckro@CSUPomona.Edu>]

>     Since I have so much trouble with probability, I decided to solve a
> big problem a couple of years ago.   I computed an algorithm to estimate
> the expected value of a Texas State Lottery Ticket.  Of course, it never
> is worth a buck. ...

Actually, I think there are times when the expected return *is* 
greater than a buck.  This only occurs when a significant amount 
of rollover money from a previous "no winner" drawing (money that 
is not represented by current tickets) is in the pot.  So the 
trick is to play only when this is the case and then--most 
important of all--to pick numbers that nobody else will pick, like 
34, 35, 36, 37, 38, and 39.  The fact that this is the *best* 
strategy for beating the lottery is also an excellent reason for 
*never* playing the lottery--assuming, of course, that the 
regressive taxation it represents and the general immorality of 
financing state obligations in this manner aren't reason enough.

John

P.S.  Has anybody else ever marveled at the inspired sleight of 
hand wherein the state pays large jackpots over twenty years?  If 
the state has any investment savvy whatsoever, it will be able 
to meet these payments and still end up with *more* than the 
original jackpot at the end.

In fact, this practice probably invalidates my argument above 
since the expected return is effectively reduced by about 50% 
due to the rather small *present* value of the *future* income.
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